The case for Radiant Cut

She was 8th by 7 1/2 at Saratoga without an excuse in a maiden special weight, but my heart ached when I saw this filly was in for 50k at Belmont yesterday and won. It seems too easy to tab horses who projected out to very good showings with a normal break in one of their races -- too easy, and as if it doesn't work as often as logic says it should.

Radiant Cut fit the bill in her 6/29 Belmont debut; my notes have her start as "super slow." She finished 6th by 6 1/4 in a field of 9, and I remember her start as hypothetically accounting for the entire deficit. (I like to give context, so the winner was Almost an Angel, who either planted the seed or directly inspired the "Wesley Ward with raced 2 yos" post).

That race was 6f on the turf. Then came the 1 1/16 race at Saratoga, where I didn't see any of the promise I'd seen in the debut. She continued to work afterwards, so soundness was not obvously lacking.

Pedigree was another strong angle with Radiant Cut. Her dam, Ruff, won the Miss Grillo in 2000, and her half brother, Mr. Gruff is/was a very, very talented horse. He's sort of the poor man's Shakespeare: 7 for 13 lifetime, but not breaking his maiden until age 5, and needing five years to compile those 13 starts. Except for a race in Dubai, the horse always runs well. I'd say he's just a hell of a turf sprinter, but running 3rd in the 2010 Shoemaker at a mile, he might just be a hell of a horse, or a hell of a turf horse, anyway.

Then you have Radiant Cut's sire. Sharp Humor isn't just a sneaky good sire; he's good.

Crunching final-time numbers and watching her victory on Friday, I hate to admit that I saw a filly who was probably pegged accurately for $50,000. She showed a legitimate turn of foot to thrust herself into contention down the backstretch, but was workmanlike in the stretch, although on the way to a 2 3/4 length win. Even on a course probably  playing slower than on Wednesday and Thursday, the 1:10.85 time doesn't give the impression that this is a filly ready to battle New York maiden special weight winners in ensuing starts.

There were positives here to an unusual degree for a lightly raced 2-year-old in for a tag. But owner Robert Spiegal bred Ruff, Mr, Gruff, and Radiant Cut, so he knows of the positives more thoroughly than I. It's hard for me to believe he didn't appreciate them, given owners' abilities to appreciate their horses. So either a) Radiant Cut has red flags, maybe of the soundness variety, that I can't know about and appreciate or b) Siegal and David Donk thought they could get away with the $50,000 maneuver, (maybe because the bad start in the debut was somewhat obscured by a 6th-place finish and an understated DRF trouble line.) She wasn't claimed, so they did get away with it.)

I feel somewhat vindicated by the win, in any event. Vindication feels hollow next to missed opportunity, however.