Friday, January 20, 2012

Alydarla: a volatile stock, or a vulnerable market?

Three-year-old filly Alydarla, who returned a winner at Thursday Gulfstream in a 5f turf allowance after being off since Saratoga, certainly had an interesting beginning to her career. Her first start was in the grade III Schuylerville, where she took a 23-length drubbing; her second, just two weeks later, in a $150,000 maiden claiming race. The Schuylerville assignment says that you think your horse is, if not exceptional, certainly precocious; it's the equivalent of skipping kindergarten and beginning in first grade. The maiden claiming race, even at $150,000, says that your horse has limitations. While a claim in a $150,0000 maiden claiming race would be a shocker, the purse for the race is lower than in a regular maiden special weight, so running a horse there does show a lack of confidence. Alydarla just failed to last in the high-priced maiden claimer, then joined the valued ranks of Saratoga 2-year-old maiden special weight winners with a 5-length score 20 days later. Another oddity in her past performances is that her first two starts came with Lasix, her third without it; you obviously see many more horses go on Lasix than off it early in their careers.

Now, whatever the Schuylerville start seems to say, whatever possible arrogance it projects, the truth is that it's not that outrageous an assignment for a first-time starter with good but not special talent. Fillies like Ashado, Gold Mover, and Golden Attraction have won the Schuylerville, but the 2010 winner, Le Mi Geaux, was claimed for $75,000 within a year of winning. The same year, a first-time starter named Manchurian High finished 19 lengths behind Kantharos in the Saratoga Special, but stole 3rd in a four-horse field. He broke his maiden for $32,000 at Tampa Bay Downs that December. The 2011 Schuylerville was a six-horse field. What James and Sonia Chapman may have been doing more than anything else was taking a cold look at the spots and trying to get their filly unrepresentative graded black type. I don't think disrespecting the Schuylerville is quite the same as disrespecting racing, or the other people in it.

The runner-up to Alydarla on Thursday, Sabrina's Dance, was running under the $75,000 optional tag. She also had the unusual history of having run in a graded stake in her previous start, which was the grade III Old Hat earlier in the meet. She ran 7th and last, beaten over 11 lengths.

To my mind, Alydarla's pattern is still the more unusual of the two, although I'm having trouble pinpointing why. The optional claimer/allowance probably has better horses than the $150,000 maiden claimer, so going to it is not as steep a drop, assuming the Schuylerville and Old Hat are equal. They may not be, however; it certainly makes sense, in any event, that the Old Hat had more depth, if not more front-line talent. So, assigning numbers to the races, Alydarla's drop may have been from a 17 to a 4, but Sabrina's Dance's from a 19 to a 6. I might also tab Alydarla's drop as more precipitous because Sabrina's Dance's connections (Frank Carl Calabrese + Nick Canani) had had three looks at her in competition before deciding to go with the claiming race. No matter how bad Alydarla's Schuylerville was, it's hard to see giving up on a horse after one race.

As far as Thursday's race itself, Alydarla was hard ridden through most of it. She appeared to be asked to be on the pace but couldn't keep up in 4th or 5th. But she kept grinding, and when Sabrina's Dance cracked, she took advantage.

No comments:

Post a Comment